Climate Projections

Climate projections are plausible descriptions of the future climate, based on assumptions of global development and the resulting levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. They are not a prediction of a specific event, like a weather forecast, but instead provide a range of possible changes over a longer time period.

Projections are created using global climate models to produce computer simulations of the climate systems. The response of the climate models to different scenarios (see Representative Concentration Pathways) leads to different climate change signals and a range of possible climate futures for any given location.

Other factors that may add to the range of climate projections include future technological advances, natural disasters and political changes, as well as the differing internal dynamics of models used to produce projections. (See Uncertainty.)

Therefore, it is important to consider as many projections as possible to capture the full range of possible futures when applying the data to adaptation studies.