Philippines map markerSelecting Model Simulations

Following the principle of the Climate Futures tool, this case study plotted the projected changes in annual temperature against those of annual rainfall for data from all the initial models sourced.

Plot of changes in annual rainfall (mm/day) and annual surface air temperature (°C) for the period 2036-2065 minus the period 1971–2000 for global climate models (orange dots), regional climate model output (black dots). The models selected for the case study are highlighted in yellow. Location: Cabanatuan City.

Based on this plot, and other considerations such as data availability for the selected RCPs, the chosen models were:

  • CC10-CCSM (the RCM showing the largest drying at this location)
  • CC10-MPI-ESM-LR (in the middle of the projections, so representative of the consensus)
  • CMCC-CM5.

The CMCC-CM5 results indicated the greatest increase in rainfall but did not have simulations for RCP4.5. For this reason, the simulations from CMCC-ESM were also selected.