Indonesia map markerConstructing Projections


In this case study, monthly rainfall normal distributions were conducted for the future and baseline periods, using the rainfall areal average over the East Java Province for dynamically downscaled data without outputs from each of the six GCMs.

Normal distribution of area-average over East Java of monthly rainfall from CCAM regional models forced by the output from six GCMs: (a) ACCESS1.0, (b) CCSM4, (c) CNRM-CM5, (d) GFDL-CM3, (e) MPI-ESM-LR, and (f) NorESM1-M. Solid lines denote baseline (1981–2010) and dashed line denote projection (2011–2040). Vertical lines denote mean values.

Constructing the projections in this way allows the researchers to understand possible changes in the mean and variability of monthly rainfall over the whole province. By plotting the model results individually, the researchers could see, for instance, that most models suggest a possible increase in mean rainfall. Such initial exploration is useful when analyzing projections results.